The Shifting Global Order: The Decline of the US, China, and Russia and the Emerging Leadership Contest Between India and Europe

 The Shifting Global Order: The Decline of the US, China, and Russia and the Emerging Leadership Contest Between India and Europe

Rahul Ramya

20.03.2025

India, Patna

Introduction

The global order is undergoing a profound transformation. The traditional hegemons—the United States, China, and Russia—are facing internal weaknesses and external challenges that are diminishing their influence. Simultaneously, India and Europe are emerging as potential global leaders, yet both face critical hurdles in their quest for supremacy. This essay explores the decline of the current powers, the opportunities available for India and Europe, and which of them is better placed for future global leadership. It also examines how India’s internal weaknesses, including its neglect of education, health, inclusive economic policies, and strategic assertiveness, threaten its rise.

1. The Decline of the US, China, and Russia as Global Leaders

(A) The United States: The Erosion of Global Trust

The United States, once the undisputed leader of the post-World War II order, is losing its global relevance due to:

   •   Political Instability and Isolationism: The Trump 2.0 administration has deepened America’s retreat from global leadership. Its tariffs on allies, reduction in foreign aid, and unpredictable foreign policy have weakened trust in US commitments.

   •   Declining Military and Economic Influence: While still powerful, the US is struggling to dictate terms internationally, as seen in its ineffective handling of crises in Ukraine and the Middle East. Its economic policies, including deglobalization and excessive reliance on sanctions, have driven countries toward alternative economic blocs.

   •   Loss of Moral Authority: America’s inconsistent stance on democracy and human rights has reduced its credibility, especially after its failures in Afghanistan, Iraq, and its handling of domestic issues like racial tensions and income inequality.

(B) China: A Superpower Without Friends

China, despite its economic and military rise, is increasingly seen as an aggressive and expansionist power, which limits its ability to lead globally.

   •   Geopolitical Overreach: China’s aggressive stance in the South China Sea, Taiwan, and along the India-China border has alienated neighbors. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has fueled resentment rather than goodwill, with countries like Sri Lanka and Pakistan trapped in debt diplomacy.

   •   Economic Slowdown: The Chinese economy, once seen as an unstoppable force, is now plagued by a property crisis, falling exports, and declining foreign investment due to its authoritarian policies.

   •   Lack of Soft Power: Unlike the US, China lacks ideological appeal and cultural influence. Its model of surveillance capitalism and authoritarianism is feared rather than admired.

(C) Russia: A Declining Power Relying on Military Force

Russia has positioned itself as a disruptor rather than a leader, limiting its long-term relevance.

   •   Ukraine War and Economic Decline: The prolonged war in Ukraine has drained Russian resources, led to crippling Western sanctions, and pushed Russia into dependence on China.

   •   Diplomatic Isolation: While Russia still wields influence in some parts of Africa and the Middle East, its alliances are transactional and weak. It lacks economic or ideological appeal beyond brute force.

   •   Demographic Crisis: Russia’s aging population, brain drain, and declining innovation further weaken its long-term prospects.

2. The Rise of India and Europe as Potential Global Leaders

(A) Europe: Economic and Technological Strength, But Political Disunity

Europe is well-positioned to emerge as a global leader due to:

   •   Economic and Technological Strength: The European Union (EU) remains one of the world’s largest economies, leading in green technology, AI regulation, and industrial innovation.

   •   Soft Power and Diplomacy: The EU’s emphasis on human rights, climate action, and multilateralism makes it an attractive global leader.

   •   Military Expansion: With increased defense budgets in France, Germany, and the UK, Europe is slowly shedding its reliance on the US for security.

However, Europe suffers from political fragmentation, with internal divisions between Eastern and Western Europe, populist movements, and slow decision-making processes that hinder unified global leadership.

(B) India: The Sleeping Giant with Untapped Potential

India, the world’s largest democracy, has the potential to emerge as a leader due to:

   •   Demographic Advantage: With a youthful population, India can be the next economic and innovation hub.

   •   Geopolitical Balancing: India’s strategic position between the US, Russia, and China allows it to maneuver diplomatically without being tied to any bloc.

   •   Economic Growth: India’s economy is growing rapidly, with advancements in IT, pharmaceuticals, and space technology.

However, India’s leadership ambitions are severely undermined by internal weaknesses.

3. Why India is Losing the Race Due to Internal Weaknesses

Despite its advantages, India is failing to capitalize on its potential due to:

1. Neglect of Education and Healthcare

      •   India spends only 2.9% of GDP on education and 1.5% on healthcare, far below global leaders.

      •   Poor education quality results in low innovation and an unskilled workforce.

      •   Weak healthcare infrastructure, exposed during COVID-19, limits human capital development.

2. Worsening Inequality and Lack of Inclusive Economic Policies

      •   India’s economic growth is concentrated among the top 1%, while rural and lower-income populations struggle.

      •   Caste and gender disparities prevent the full utilization of human capital.

3. Dependence on Western Technology

      •   India lacks indigenous semiconductor production, AI research dominance, and advanced manufacturing.

      •   Heavy reliance on the US, Europe, and Israel for defense technology weakens strategic autonomy.

4. Lack of Strategic Assertiveness Against China, Russia, and the US

      •   India remains hesitant to take a firm stand on global conflicts (e.g., Ukraine war, Taiwan crisis).

      •   It avoids aggressive posturing against China, even after the 2020 border clashes.

      •   Continued reliance on Russian military equipment is a strategic liability, given Russia’s increasing dependence on China.

5. Communalism and Internal Divisions

      •   Rising Hindu-Muslim tensions and political polarization weaken national unity.

      •   Religious and caste-based violence hinder India’s ability to project an inclusive and stable image internationally.

4. Who is Better Placed for Global Leadership: India or Europe?

Factor	Europe	India
Economic Strength	✅ Strong	⚠️ Growing but unequal
Technology & Innovation	✅ Advanced	⚠️ Lagging
Military Strength	⚠️ Strengthening	⚠️ Dependent on others
Political Stability	⚠️ Fragmented	⚠️ Increasing polarization
Soft Power	✅ Strong	✅ Rising
Strategic Autonomy	⚠️ US-aligned	✅ Independent but weak assertiveness

Europe is better positioned in the short term, but India has greater long-term potential if it addresses its weaknesses.

5. What India Must Do to Win the Race for Global Leadership

   •   Increase investment in education and R&D to develop indigenous technology.

   •   Reform economic policies to ensure inclusive growth and reduce inequality.

   •   Expand military production capabilities to reduce dependence on foreign suppliers.

   •   Adopt a more assertive foreign policy to counter China and Russia’s growing influence.

   •   Strengthen national unity by reducing communal tensions and embracing pluralism.

Conclusion

The US, China, and Russia are losing their grip on global leadership due to internal and external challenges. This presents a unique opportunity for India and Europe. While Europe is economically and technologically superior, its political fragmentation hinders unified leadership. India, despite its strategic advantages, is held back by internal mismanagement and policy failures.

If India fails to act decisively, Europe will take the lead in shaping the new world order. However, with bold reforms and strategic vision, India could still emerge as the dominant force of the 21st century.